Rahman's Bangladesh return reshapes regional dynamics for Australia's Indo-Pacific interests
The return of Tarique Rahman to Bangladesh after nearly two decades in exile marks a pivotal moment in South Asian politics, with significant implications for Australia's strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific region.
The 60-year-old son of former Bangladesh Prime Minister Khaleda Zia and chief of the Bangladesh National Party (BNP) arrived at Dhaka's Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport on Thursday morning to crowds of thousands of supporters. Rahman, who stepped barefoot onto Bangladeshi soil in a symbolic homecoming gesture, immediately positioned himself as a unifying figure for the nation's diverse religious communities.
A call for inclusive governance
"We will build a Bangladesh that a mother dreams of," Rahman declared to cheering crowds, urging Muslims, Hindus, Buddhists and Christians to join him in creating an inclusive nation. His emphasis on religious tolerance comes at a critical time when Bangladesh faces reports of attacks on minorities, particularly Hindus.
Rahman's rhetoric deliberately echoed Martin Luther King Jr's famous speech, declaring: "I have a plan, a plan for the people of my country." This messaging signals his intention to present himself as a democratic reformer capable of healing Bangladesh's deep political divisions.
Electoral dynamics and regional implications
Rahman's return precedes Bangladesh's February 2026 elections, where surveys by the US-based International Republican Institute suggest the BNP is positioned to win the most parliamentary seats. The interim government led by Muhammad Yunus has announced it will step down following the polls, with Sheikh Hasina's Awami League dissolved and barred from participation.
For regional powers, including Australia's key partner India, Rahman's ascendancy represents a significant shift. India has historically maintained closer ties with Hasina's government, viewing the BNP relationship as more complex. However, Rahman's recent statements suggest a pragmatic approach to foreign relations, declaring "Not Dilli, not Pindi (Rawalpindi), Bangladesh before everything."
Countering extremist influence
Perhaps most significantly for regional stability, Rahman has already positioned himself against the Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami party, which has gained influence under the interim government. "Those who are now asking people for support, the country has already seen them in 1971," Rahman stated, referencing the party's controversial role during Bangladesh's independence war.
This stance addresses concerns about Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence reportedly backing the Jamaat, which polls suggest could emerge as a significant political force. For Australia, which prioritises democratic governance and stability in the Indo-Pacific, Rahman's opposition to extremist elements represents a potentially stabilising factor.
Strategic considerations for Australia
Former Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh Riva Ganguly Das noted Rahman's political significance, highlighting his ability to "consolidate centrist forces" during a period of ideological fragmentation. This consolidation could prove crucial for Australia's broader Indo-Pacific strategy, which relies on stable democratic partners in South Asia.
Rahman's emphasis on economic development and democratic governance aligns with Australia's regional priorities. His calls for cooperation across religious and ethnic lines mirror Australia's own multicultural values and commitment to inclusive societies.
As Bangladesh prepares for its February elections, Rahman's return introduces a new dynamic that could reshape regional relationships. For Australia, monitoring these developments will be crucial as the nation continues to strengthen its Indo-Pacific partnerships and promote democratic values across the region.
The outcome of Bangladesh's electoral process will significantly influence regional stability and the broader strategic balance that Australia seeks to maintain through its Indo-Pacific partnerships.