Pakistan's $4.6bn Libya arms deal signals shift in defence diplomacy
Pakistan has finalised a substantial $4.6 billion defence contract with Libya's National Army, marking a significant evolution in the country's defence industry from client state to major arms vendor. The deal, concluded during Field Marshal Asim Munir's December visit to Benghazi, includes 16 JF-17 Thunder fighter jets and 12 Super Mushak trainer aircraft.
Strategic implications for regional security
The transaction carries notable risks as it circumvents the UN arms embargo on Libya, demonstrating Pakistan's increasingly assertive approach to defence exports. By aligning with General Khalifa Haftar's forces, Pakistan has positioned itself alongside Egypt, Russia and the UAE in North African geopolitics, potentially straining relations with Turkey, a key defence partner supporting Libya's Tripoli-based government.
This deal matches Pakistan's previous record-breaking $4.6 billion contract with Azerbaijan for 40 JF-17 aircraft, establishing the country as a credible alternative to Western defence systems for developing nations seeking cost-effective military solutions.
Defence industry transformation
The JF-17 Thunder, jointly developed with China's Chengdu Aircraft Corporation, represents Pakistan's growing confidence in co-developed defence technologies. The aircraft has found markets in Myanmar, Nigeria, Iraq and Azerbaijan, with Libya now joining this expanding client base.
Pakistan's defence industry, while smaller than India's comprehensive ecosystem, focuses on aerospace and armoured systems through Chinese technological collaboration. This approach appeals to nations seeking alternatives to Western platforms without associated political conditions.
Military establishment's foreign policy role
The Libya deal reinforces the Pakistan military's dominant role in foreign policy formulation. The recently created Chief of Defence Force position has consolidated tri-service command and nuclear authority under Field Marshal Munir, centralising strategic decision-making.
Following Pakistan's May 2025 conflict with India, Munir has leveraged claimed military success as a marketing tool for defence exports, stating that "recent war with India demonstrated our advanced capabilities to the world."
Economic and diplomatic momentum
Pakistan's renewed ties with the United States under Donald Trump's administration, alongside strengthening West Asian partnerships including a Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement with Saudi Arabia, suggest diplomatic momentum. However, chronic political instability and economic fragility raise questions about the sustainability of this military-industrial expansion.
The defence export success occurs against a backdrop of foreign debt dependency and governance challenges, highlighting the tension between short-term strategic gains and long-term institutional stability.
Regional balance considerations
For Australia and regional partners monitoring Indo-Pacific security dynamics, Pakistan's growing defence export capabilities represent both opportunity and complexity. The country's strategic autonomy in North Africa, combined with deepening Chinese technological collaboration, adds new variables to regional security calculations.
The institutionalisation of military-led foreign policy in Pakistan continues to sideline civilian governance, perpetuating a security-first narrative that prioritises establishment longevity over democratic institutional development.