Trump’s Saudi nuclear deal: A risky step for non-proliferation
The United States has signed a nuclear energy agreement with Saudi Arabia, allowing the kingdom to build reactors using American technology and to enrich uranium. Announced on July 23, 2026, the deal marks a significant shift in US energy diplomacy, but experts warn it could undermine decades of non-proliferation efforts.
What the deal entails
Under the agreement, Saudi Arabia will be permitted to enrich uranium for power generation and manage nuclear waste. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright told Fox News that the deal “will uphold the highest standards for nuclear safety.” He described it as a long-term strategic partnership, adding: “America is a leader in this technology. We’re launching a nuclear renaissance.”
The deal, expected to last 30 years, now goes to the US Congress. If lawmakers do not object, it will enter into force.
Non-proliferation concerns
John Erath, Senior Policy Director at the Centre for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, noted that similar agreements typically require additional oversight from the International Atomic Energy Agency, including snap inspections. However, Saudi Arabia has indicated it will not sign an additional protocol. “Without that, how do we meet the high standards of non-proliferation?” Erath asked. “That’s really going to be the question people will ask.”
The United Arab Emirates signed a comparable deal with Washington in 2009 but agreed to forgo enrichment and reprocessing. Saudi Arabia’s refusal to accept similar restrictions raises red flags.
Risk of a nuclear arms race in the Middle East
Kelsey Davenport, Director of Non-Proliferation Policy at the Arms Control Association, pointed out that Saudi officials, including Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, have openly threatened to develop nuclear weapons to match any Iranian capability. “Now the United States is handing them the technical means to actually produce that material without requiring these more intrusive inspections,” she said.
Davenport stressed that the same technology used to produce nuclear fuel for reactors can also produce fissile material for weapons. “If the deal goes wrong or US-Saudi relations sour, the nuclear genie will already be out of the bottle,” she warned.
Geopolitical context
The announcement comes during the ongoing US-Israel war against Iran, launched partly to eliminate Tehran’s nuclear weapons capability. Saudi Arabia has long argued that if it could not partner with the US, it would turn to China or Russia. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has repeatedly stated he does not want a nuclear weapon, but would seek one if Iran obtained an atomic bomb.
What happens next
The deal now faces scrutiny in the US Congress. If approved, it will set a precedent for nuclear cooperation in the Middle East, with potential implications for regional stability and global non-proliferation norms.
Frequently asked questions
Why is this deal considered risky?
The deal allows Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium without agreeing to additional IAEA inspections, raising the risk that enrichment technology could be diverted to produce weapons-grade material.
How does this compare to the UAE deal?
The UAE agreed to forgo enrichment and reprocessing in its 2009 deal with the US. Saudi Arabia has refused similar restrictions, making this agreement less stringent on non-proliferation.
Could this lead to a nuclear arms race?
Experts warn that if Saudi Arabia develops enrichment capabilities, it could trigger a regional arms race, especially given the kingdom’s stated willingness to match any Iranian nuclear capability.
Photo: Australian Broadcasting Corporation