NRL Finals Race Comes Down to the Wire as Minor Premiership Hangs in Balance
The final round of the 2026 NRL regular season is set to deliver a dramatic conclusion, with the top eight confirmed but several key positions, including the minor premiership, still to be decided. The Warriors and Penrith Panthers enter the weekend level on 40 competition points, separated only by a single point of for-and-against differential.
The Warriors hold a slender advantage of +309 compared to Penrith's +308, setting up a tense finale. The New Zealand side faces Manly at home, while the Panthers host the Wests Tigers in the final game of the regular season on Sunday afternoon.
What is at stake in the final round of the NRL season?
Beyond the minor premiership, the battle for third and fourth place remains unresolved. The Dolphins and Sydney Roosters are locked on 38 points, with the Dolphins holding a four-point edge in differential. The Roosters need to defeat South Sydney by at least 15 points at Accor Stadium to leapfrog Kristian Woolf's side into third position.
The Dolphins travel to the Gold Coast to face the Titans, having already beaten them 24-14 earlier in the season. That result now shapes the equation for the Roosters, who must produce a convincing victory to secure a more favourable finals path.
How high and low can each top-eight team finish?
The final round offers limited movement for most teams, but the mathematical scenarios vary significantly across the eight finalists.
Warriors (40 points, +309)
Best-case finish: 1st. Worst-case finish: 2nd. Andrew Webster's side can finish no lower than second and will likely need to win convincingly, given Penrith have named a strong lineup to face the Tigers.
Penrith Panthers (40 points, +308)
Best-case finish: 1st. Worst-case finish: 2nd. The Panthers will know exactly what they need to do, playing in the final match of the regular season with the minor premiership on the line.
Dolphins (38 points, +152)
Best-case finish: 3rd. Worst-case finish: 4th. The Dolphins hold the advantage over the Roosters on points differential and control their own destiny for a top-three finish.
Sydney Roosters (38 points, +148)
Best-case finish: 3rd. Worst-case finish: 4th. The equation is straightforward for the Roosters: win by 15 points or more to guarantee third place. Otherwise, they will face a trip to New Zealand or a meeting with the premiership favourites.
Cronulla Sharks (34 points, +153)
Best-case finish: 5th. Worst-case finish: 6th. The Sharks are virtually locked into fifth position and a home final, unless an extraordinary set of results unfolds in the final round.
South Sydney Rabbitohs (32 points, +83)
Best-case finish: 5th. Worst-case finish: 8th. The Rabbitohs have the most to lose this weekend. A defeat to the understrength Roosters would see them drop behind the Knights, who have the bye, and potentially the Cowboys as well.
Newcastle Knights (32 points, +42)
Best-case finish: 6th. Worst-case finish: 7th. The Knights can relax during the bye round, but will be hoping South Sydney slips up to secure a home final in Newcastle.
North Queensland Cowboys (32 points, -64)
Best-case finish: 7th. Worst-case finish: 8th. The Cowboys will be travelling in week one of the finals, with their exact destination depending on results elsewhere.
Predicted week one finals schedule
Based on current projections from Fox Sports Lab, the opening week of the finals would feature the following matchups:
- Panthers (1st) vs Roosters (4th)
- Warriors (2nd) vs Dolphins (3rd)
- Sharks (5th) vs Cowboys (8th)
- Rabbitohs (6th) vs Knights (7th)
These pairings remain subject to change based on Sunday's results, particularly the minor premiership decider and the battle for third place. The finals series begins next weekend, with the top four teams earning the right to host matches in week one.