AFL Finals Race Heats Up as Sydney Slips and Essendon Stuns Giants
The race for the top two positions in the AFL has been blown wide open after Sydney's sudden slide, while Essendon's stunning upset over GWS has reshaped the wildcard race. With five rounds remaining, the competition is set for a thrilling finish ahead of the league's first 10-team finals series.
Fremantle is now projected to claim the minor premiership for the first time since 2015, sitting comfortably atop the ladder with a 16-2 record and a dominant percentage of 142%. The Dockers are expected to finish with 19.65 wins, making them clear favorites for the top spot.
Sydney's three losses in their last four games have created a genuine contest for second place. The Swans still hold a strong percentage advantage and a relatively easy run home, but Hawthorn has emerged as a serious challenger. The Hawks, sitting third with a 12-5-1 record, do not need to worry about percentage thanks to their draw and have a favorable fixture ahead, though they face a crucial away game against Brisbane in Round 22.
Adelaide's victory over Sydney has boosted their top-four hopes, while Melbourne remains in contention for a top-two finish, albeit with a tougher path. The Demons face a critical clash against Geelong next Friday night, with the loser likely to fall into the wildcard round.
Essendon's shock win over GWS has had major implications for the wildcard race. The Giants' inconsistency continues to baffle, having beaten top sides Fremantle and Brisbane but losing to lowly Essendon and West Coast. This result has opened the door for St Kilda, who now have a clear path to 12 wins and a finals berth.
Collingwood, sitting ninth, are well placed to secure a wildcard spot with one more win, while the Western Bulldogs are almost locked into the finals after beating Gold Coast. Carlton's finals hopes remain alive but require a strong finish, while North Melbourne and Gold Coast face uphill battles given their difficult remaining fixtures.
The projected finals bracket sees Fremantle hosting Brisbane in the first qualifying final, while Sydney face Hawthorn in the second. The wildcard round will feature Geelong against St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs against Collingwood.
With five rounds left, the competition is finely balanced. The top six teams will earn a bye before the wildcard round, adding an extra layer of intrigue to the run home.