Sydney's Bays West to Create New Suburb Larger Than Regional Towns
New research has revealed the extraordinary scale of the NSW Government's Bays West precinct at Glebe Island, which will deliver 8,500 new dwellings and create an inner-city population larger than many prominent regional Australian towns.
The landmark development, analysed by OurTop10 in collaboration with Primara Research, will deliver more new homes than have been approved across Sydney Harbour's entire foreshore area over the past two years combined. This represents a significant shift in urban development patterns for Australia's largest city.
Scale of Development
The research shows Bays West will dwarf the 6,517 apartments approved from Putney to Rose Bay, Vaucluse, and Watsons Bay. At an average household size of 2.6 residents, the precinct could add 22,100 people to the harbour foreshore, more than doubling the combined population growth of 9,153 residents recorded across all 30 harbour areas over the past five years.
To provide perspective, the new suburb's population will exceed several well-known regional towns including Yeppoon in Queensland, Whyalla and Port Augusta in South Australia, Griffith and Grafton in New South Wales, and Wangaratta and Horsham in Victoria. It will approach Adelaide City's current population of 29,118.
The first homes are expected for completion by 2032, coinciding with the opening of the Metro station.
Regional Development Patterns
The research highlights contrasting development activity across Sydney Harbour. In eight harbour areas closer to the CBD than Glebe Island, only 495 dwellings have been approved over two years, representing just six per cent of the foreshore total and less than one per cent of all dwellings approved in Greater Sydney.
Glebe Island's immediate neighbours have seen minimal activity, with Millers Point recording one dwelling approval, Pyrmont zero, and Balmain just 23. Conversely, 73 per cent of harbourside apartment approvals were concentrated in areas further from the CBD, including Greenwich-Riverview (25 per cent), Five Dock-Abbotsford (19 per cent), and Wentworth Point-Sydney Olympic Park (15 per cent).
Economic Implications
The 30 harbourside areas currently house 489,497 residents, with median property prices averaging $2.1 million. Prices range from $723,000 in Ryde South to $5.5 million in Rose Bay-Vaucluse-Watsons Bay.
The 8,500 new apartments represent more than 21 years of typical sales volume for the Lilyfield-Rozelle area, which sees approximately 400 property sales annually. This development could increase Lilyfield-Rozelle's current population of 14,152 by 156 per cent.
Property expert Simon Ma from OurTop10 suggests the development will create complex market dynamics. "Castle Hill showed apartment construction changes an area's price composition," Ma said. "Lilyfield-Rozelle is more established, so prices aren't likely to balloon as dramatically. However, it's an exclusive area, and a premium metro connection may push prices significantly higher before the 8,500 apartments moderate the median."
Political Perspectives
NSW Premier Chris Minns has defended the planned density around the Bays West metro station, noting buildings will "in some cases be over 40 storeys." He emphasised the necessity of placing housing close to the city centre.
"There's been this almost pathological exception to high-rise apartments close to Sydney's CBD," Minns stated. "What ends up happening if you permanently lower the height of apartments is you fill up more space with housing and there is less space for public parks, to have picnics, and public amenity."
However, Deputy Liberal leader and transport spokeswoman Natalie Ward has criticised the development as "another millionaires' row," despite commitments for a minimum of 10 per cent affordable and essential worker homes. Her comments reflect ongoing Coalition concerns about housing affordability around new transport infrastructure.
The development represents a significant test of urban planning policy, balancing density requirements with community concerns about affordability and infrastructure capacity in one of Australia's most valuable real estate markets.