One Nation's migration cut plan: economic risk or necessary reset?
One Nation has unveiled a federal election policy that would cut migration by more than 750,000 places over three years, a move the party says is needed to ease pressure on housing, health and the cost of living. The proposal would push net overseas migration into negative territory before stabilising at an annual ceiling of 130,000, a significant reduction from current levels.
The plan has drawn sharp criticism from the government, the opposition, and key industry groups, who warn it could trigger an economic downturn and hurt sectors reliant on skilled workers.
What does One Nation's migration policy involve?
The bulk of the cuts target international students, graduate workers, and their families, with places reduced by nearly 470,000 over three years. Temporary skilled visas would be cut by just over 100,000, and family members would no longer be eligible for these visas. Bridging visas and unlawful non-citizens also face reductions.
Under the plan, up to 100,000 international students could still be enrolled each year, while graduate visas would be capped at 20,000. A new visa class for 'high value' students, focusing on postdoctoral studies and selected STEM courses, is also proposed.
One Nation MP Barnaby Joyce defended the policy, saying the current system has turned Australia into a 'caravan park'. He argued that with temporary visa numbers rising from two million in 2022 to three million now, a major reset is necessary.
Why do critics say the plan could hurt the economy?
Environment Minister Murray Watt said the policy is a recipe to drive the Australian economy into recession. He noted that the National Farmers Federation has warned it would deprive farmers of workers and push up food prices in supermarkets.
Nationals leader David Littleproud also criticised the plan, saying it would strip skilled workers from regional Australia, where mining and agriculture generate much of the nation's income. He cautioned against populism, arguing that cutting student numbers without a calibrated system would lead to unintended productivity losses.
Andrew McKellar, chief executive of the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, described the proposal as a 'COVID-level shock' to the economy. He rejected comparisons to recent cuts in Canada, calling them a false equivalence, and urged a more nuanced debate focused on system integrity rather than arbitrary targets.
How do the major parties and other groups respond?
Coalition leader Angus Taylor has called on One Nation to clarify its annual numbers and explain what the policy means for small businesses and regional communities. He said the Coalition's own target is likely to be below 200,000, linked specifically to housing construction.
Universities Australia chief executive Luke Sheehy accused One Nation of joining Labor and the Coalition in a 'race to the bottom' on international students. He warned that dramatic cuts would make Australia poorer and less skilled.
Greens leader Larissa Waters echoed that sentiment, saying both major parties and One Nation are competing to reduce migration without addressing the root causes of housing and cost-of-living pressures.
What happens next?
Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke had been due to outline Labor's migration policy in August but cancelled with little notice. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has reportedly met with Angus Taylor to seek common ground, though no details have been released.
One Nation has promised to protect Pacific Australia Labour Mobility visas and Working Holiday Maker visas, which may soften the impact on agriculture and hospitality. However, the National Farmers' Federation has called for industry consultation, warning that food prices could rise if the plan proceeds.
The debate over migration is set to intensify as the federal election approaches, with all parties seeking to balance economic needs against public concerns over housing and infrastructure.