John Howard’s blunt advice to the Liberals on winning back One Nation voters

Former prime minister John Howard has delivered a sharp message to the Liberal Party: the only coalition worth pursuing is with the Nationals, not Pauline Hanson’s One Nation. His intervention comes as polling shows the Coalition bleeding support to the right-wing party, which now commands a primary vote of 29 percent, tied with Labor.

Speaking to the Sydney Morning Herald, Howard made clear that the path to recovery lies in the Liberal-National Coalition being the best version of itself. He urged the party to develop stronger policy ideas and advocate them vigorously, rather than flirt with a formal alliance with One Nation.

Howard’s warning on coalition deals

Howard, who as Liberal leader disendorsed Hanson as a candidate in 1996 over her remarks on Indigenous Australians, said a coalition with One Nation should not be contemplated. He acknowledged that the Coalition might need to work with whatever parliament voters elect, but insisted the way to deal with One Nation’s rise is for the Liberals and Nationals to demonstrate their own strengths.

Opposition leader Angus Taylor has so far resisted pressure from some right-wing MPs to form an orange-and-blue alliance. Howard backed this stance, saying Taylor and his team must “do the work” to recover lost ground.

Advice for fleeing Liberal voters

Howard directly addressed voters who have abandoned the Coalition for One Nation. “If you want a good centre-right alternative to this miserable rotten mob you’ve got now, then support a Coalition that’s working hard on policy alternatives,” he said. He praised Taylor’s budget reply speech, particularly on tax scale indexation, and said the new leader had started on the right track with immigration.

He suggested voters will pay closer attention to all parties closer to election time, giving the Coalition a chance to win back support if it presents compelling ideas.

Polling landscape and Liberal strategy

The latest Newspoll, conducted by Pyxis Polling & Insights for The Australian, shows Labor’s primary vote at its weakest since June 2013, when Julia Gillard was prime minister. Labor sits at 29 percent, tied with One Nation, while the Coalition languishes at 18 percent. The Greens rose to 14 percent, and other minor parties and independents combined for 10 percent.

Despite Labor’s poor primary vote, Anthony Albanese remains preferred prime minister with 46 percent support, compared to 31 percent for Hanson and 23 percent for Taylor. Hanson ranks second on that measure, ahead of the opposition leader.

New Liberal federal director Lincoln Folo reportedly told MPs in Canberra that research shows a sizable chunk of One Nation voters are persuadable and like the sound of Taylor’s new policies. Folo said the party should be ready to capture their attention as the election approaches.

Victorian election as a potential turning point

Howard noted that the Victorian state election in November could be a turning point if the Coalition outperforms One Nation and Labor. He framed the contest as a test of whether the Liberal-National alliance can reclaim its position as the dominant centre-right force.

Labor frontbenchers have downplayed their party’s falling primary vote, but the numbers underline a volatile political landscape. With One Nation now a major player, the Coalition faces a delicate balancing act: winning back conservative voters without alienating moderates.

FAQ

Why is John Howard advising against a coalition with One Nation?

Howard believes the Liberal Party should rely on its traditional alliance with the Nationals, not on deals with Pauline Hanson’s party. He argues that a strong Liberal-National Coalition offering clear policy alternatives is the best way to win back voters.

How are the Liberals planning to win back One Nation voters?

New federal director Lincoln Folo has told MPs that research shows many One Nation voters are open to returning to the Coalition if they hear convincing policy ideas. The party aims to present itself as a credible centre-right alternative closer to the election.

What do the latest polls show about the political landscape?

The latest Newspoll shows Labor and One Nation tied at 29 percent primary vote, with the Coalition at 18 percent. Despite this, Anthony Albanese leads as preferred prime minister with 46 percent support, ahead of Hanson at 31 percent and Taylor at 23 percent.